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By just looking at VIX index, it doesn't looks good for the stock market on the weekly chart. Will we see a market crash again this year? Very possible provided the market is already over priced and most of their prices are not very attractive. History usually won't happen again in a short time frame again because people will learn and remember their mistakes, so I think the stock market may not crash as serve as last year this time but instead prolonged, a lesser crashing scenario could happen. My assumption is based on the market already cut in half since last year, so if you jump from one half of the same cliff, you won't get the same impact. This time people expect a crash this fall, putting their money on hard assets or commodities rather than holding cash. I can see gold as an alternate safe heaven compared to money market and bonds and the recent strong rally in gold confirms my thought. I believe the recent rally in gold is the pre-stage of setting up a stock market correction.
I think this time we may see both USD and Gold go up and bond, the next performer as safe heaven compared to gold goes up as well except the stock market goes down for a correction. There is a high possibility that gold stocks could run against the correction this time but may take a hit at the beginning of the correction and that opens great opportunities for us to load up. The picture is unfolding more and more.