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We had a liquidation last year which caused a big rally of US dollar. Will this happen again before the end of this year?  The short answer is no because I don't see any liquidation intension this year, i.e. we don't see same level of big firms like Country Wide, Bear Stern and Lehman Brothers melt down.  Then you may ask why do we still have a high volatility market?  One of the reason could be speculators see US dollar gaining momentum and thought the same story happens again. But why we are seeing US dollar gaining momentum? China just announced they will buy more US dollar, why?
 
People may wonder why China increases their holding of depreciating assets, however I think that’s a smart move.  If you are aware of huge amount of hot money was flooding into Hong Kong and China in the past years and the big investors expect Yuan to appreciate and what those investors would do is waiting to sell everything and buys back US dollar.  What could have happened if Yuan appreciates, real estate and stock market bubble would have gone bust.  China have their own mind not to follow what Japan did in the 90s.  Moreover China just announced they are buying more US dollar.  Why?  China is trying to block the way out of the hot money pulled into China.  How smart is that?
 
My conclusion is US stock market could have a medium to high level of correction but not a crash this year.  The recent correction was caused by US dollar momentum and speculators are too sensitive to create negative sentiments which drive up volatilities.