DBA and CEO got stopped out, usually the signal will have at least a bounce the next day. However this is what is happening which implies the market is quite weak compared to regular bull market. It would be stand aside and watch for now until a clear picture is in place.
Market adjusts itself nicely, for some reasons or news will make gold corrects in the next couple months. As the monthly trend charts shows top in GLD. Jim Rogers agrees it as well (watch today his blog). What would happen? It could be another bigger crash of the stock market which makes USD rally and all the commodities go shady for a while.
Today we saw DOW open down for 180+ points, as the model shows the trend changing still in place. The shake out was quite significant to shake out longs just added couple days ago. I would call it a shake out instead of a down trend resume, well given that the model still shows the trend is heading north.
Here is the chart to show how I made that statement. As the black bar shows on Jun 20, 2011 and turning into a red bar the next day, which translates to a reverse trend is right at the corner. Actually the bounce was quite significant to shake out the shorts to cover which made the bounce even more powerful. Also Fed chairman Ben's talking about possibly a QE3 may come to spoil the market on a hyping tone and the rally quickly reverse again after my prediction of a 1-2 weeks rally.
As the image points out, May 19 was the day to confirm an upward trend is started. How strong is this trend or will the trend continues nobody knows but only the daily chart will provide hints.
Here presents a daily chart of Apple Computer, an easy 6-8% gain in 8-10 days if you have bought it on June 27 (first complete green bar before the market close) and sell it between July 7-11 and in this case, every day's close is higher than the close on Jul 27. Why buy and hold Apple stock the whole year for pathic returns? Trading the top quality stock with our chart is the way to go, you've got fundamental and the best technical.
The model knows when to get into the market with low risk setup. Believe it or not, Google was trading just under $500 since June 17, 2011, however our model knows to get in on June 28-29. Was this a coinsident? I don't think so. My point is why risking your money on the market from June 7 (the first red bar) to June 28? The complehensive chart was suggesting when to get into Google for a bounce play while the broad market was heading south. We can still make money by buying on June 29, 2011. This is a whooping 6.8% gain in 6 days!
There is a summary page which you can access from the bottom of the front page which contains all the daily trends for SPDR sector ETFs, you can take a look here:
There also some specific aggregated trends for short, mid and long term trends where you can access from the bottom of the front page under the "Aggregated Trends" category. As of this writing, we don't cover all the sectors for the aggregated trends but we definitely will add it later.
Great! Thank you. I think I found all of these links. However, my question was more to do with interpretation. I can pull up any number of sector related charts on your site showing the last 6 months. What I'd like help with is to understand the best way to read the 6 month trend chart to "look forward" into the next quarter. I am forming some of my own opinions but would appreciate it if you would share some of your lessons learned in this scenario.
For a longer period projection, my recommendation is to subscribe to monthly trend charts which is available to subscribers, you can follow this link to subscribe:
The monthly trend charts work the same way as weekly trend charts, it helps you to determine a bigger trend over a longer period. Catching a multi month trend could be very profitable if do it correctly. Correctly I mean you have to follow some of the constraints here:
1. Solid fundamental (not everybody can do it as it related to accounting principles). We have started some fundamental analysis to rank and give score to stocks on different categories and this is valuable to someone who doesn't have fundamental analysis background.
2. Sector cycle. The better the stock, the higher price can be achieved during a whole sector rally. Also the best stocks in the sector will lead first, such as solar energy rally started last Dec, FSLR was the one to lead.
3. Recent market condition, this is crucial because most stocks are correlated to the main market (check out the beta value of the stock, bigger than 1 mean more volatile while less than 1 means less volatile compared to the market).
Whenever I can't determine the the current trend from daily trend chart, I will look up the weekly trend chart to help on my thoughts and find the hint for a bigger wave and same for monthly trend chart, a complement to weekly trend chart.
It depends on your investment strategy, short or longer term. We defined short term in terms of days (daily chart) and mid term in terms of weeks (week chart). By looking at the chart, it may correct soon but how deep, then it depends on the weekly chart. The weekly chart shows pretty low risk and the first green bar show up so far (make sure it still show by the end of the week to be a valid one). Also I have checked the fundamental of this stock looks promising. As a short term trader, I will take some profit off the table if any, but if I am a long term investor I would rather hold or sell a covered call and watch the turn of the major market because stocks are correlated to the main market in some what degree. I will post my answer later tonight on the forum for others to share.
The risk is an indicator for trading, short to mid term wise (we are talking about 1-3 weeks time frame here), Nasdaq would be less risk to take position compared to Dow and S&P in this case. However it doesn't mean Nasdaq is a better investment than the other two. You can have something very risky and very good for investment and something very low risk all the time but very bad for investment. Remember we need to factor in time when we do investment. For example, we can buy something at very low risk and cheap but it doesn't appreciate overtime. Is this a good investment? Definitely not.
Attached the weekly chart as a reference for your qcuestions (actually, you can try to copy and paste image and post it along with your forum topic). Anyway back to your questions, on Dec 31, there is a red short term bar mixed with green long and mid term bars. What that means is the model suggested that the short term wise, there are more sellers but long and mid term wise there are buyers and usually we would see price consolidation here because short term traders are taking profits but still have long and mid term buyers accumulating. People usually call this "consolidation". In addition to the bars, the light green background suggested that the market is going to go up. However this mixed signals won't help on trading, it is better to wait till the model to give clear uni direction signals.
Here I will give you an example of taking position which is what I did on Mar 22, 2011.
First we saw a downward trend since Mar 7 for 10 days and we saw the first green bar on Mar 21. Usually after the first green bar happens, there should be a better price that you can trade lower than the first green bar and that would be a good time to take positions. Why? It is because we have at least one confirmation on upward trend (green bar) and we can see if it switches back to red bar (even though it is uncommon) the next day. Just in case it is a false rally, we don't have to be trapped. Most of the time, a regular rally, the price won't spike that much and should have enough time to take positions. As you can see the background in light green also suggest that the stock will do better in the next couple days which it actually comes out as it suggested. I have mentioned this is a typical "Bull Mood Consolidation" pattern in my other article. Also, there are many strategies to take position which I am not going to explain here.
This is an example show a bounce, as you can see the green bar raising too fast compared to normal behavior (you can tell if the movement is normal or not as you read more charts). The red bars are similar to the above chart, however the background in red suggested that the stock probably not doing good in the next couple days. And the final outcome shows it is a false rally (yes the price went up) but if you look at the closing price, it flucturates a lot and we don't want that to happen after taking positinos and the smart way is to get out or you will get shaken out. Bottom line is the project from the model won't be reliable. It is luck that makes money for you but not the model.
The black portion supposed to be in green color, the reason there is a black for the corresponding term (long, mid, short) is because the trend has reached historical high and if the next bar is in red, most of the time the trend is changing from upward to downward and you would see consecutive red bars follows.
The magic number 8 is just an arbitrary number. Most of the charts usually takes 8 to 10 days to correct. This number can be vary depends on the condition of the market and the particular stock. Currently there is no statistic done to determine the average number of downward trends for each stocks. However, after a significant number of downward trend days it is normal that the stock back to upward trend and it works like a cycle most of the time. It is market cycle plus cycle of that particular stock.
On "My Flagged List" there is a category named "Risk %". Am I correct in interpreting the greater percentage indicates the greater risk in the direction of the "Trend" (green-headed up or red-headed down) in getting into a trade with that given stock or option? Thank you very much.
Yes, the risk on the flagged list works like the risk % on the front pages. The higher the risk (100 is the highest) and that suggests not to be on the long side.
I tried to get daily/weekly charts for IL (IntraLinks Holdings, Inc. (NYSE)), a $1.5 billion technology company and for KRA (Kraton Performance Polymers, Inc. (NYSE)), a $1.3 billion materials company.
The search response for IL comes back with charts for ILF, an ETF, and the search response for KRA comes back with no chart and the words "There are no results to display".
These two companies are the "Chart of the Day" companies from my WWW.InvestedCentral.Com account for May 5 and 6 and I like to cross check their recommendations against your Stock Trend Chart data. Can you correct this?
Thank you for notifying us about the bug and the missing ticker. As for LF, please type a space after LF. e.g. type "LF " for the stock. As for KRA, we have added the stock to our library and from now on, it will be available for future daily trends.
DBA and CEO got stopped out, usually the signal will have at least a bounce the next day. However this is what is happening which implies the market is quite weak compared to regular bull market. It would be stand aside and watch for now until a clear picture is in place.
Added Silver (SLV) and Roger Index Agriculture (RJA) to Nameless Hero's picks.
Market adjusts itself nicely, for some reasons or news will make gold corrects in the next couple months. As the monthly trend charts shows top in GLD. Jim Rogers agrees it as well (watch today his blog). What would happen? It could be another bigger crash of the stock market which makes USD rally and all the commodities go shady for a while.
Today we saw DOW open down for 180+ points, as the model shows the trend changing still in place. The shake out was quite significant to shake out longs just added couple days ago. I would call it a shake out instead of a down trend resume, well given that the model still shows the trend is heading north.
Here is the chart to show how I made that statement. As the black bar shows on Jun 20, 2011 and turning into a red bar the next day, which translates to a reverse trend is right at the corner. Actually the bounce was quite significant to shake out the shorts to cover which made the bounce even more powerful. Also Fed chairman Ben's talking about possibly a QE3 may come to spoil the market on a hyping tone and the rally quickly reverse again after my prediction of a 1-2 weeks rally.
As the image points out, May 19 was the day to confirm an upward trend is started. How strong is this trend or will the trend continues nobody knows but only the daily chart will provide hints.
This week and early next week are good opportunity to load up.
Here presents a daily chart of Apple Computer, an easy 6-8% gain in 8-10 days if you have bought it on June 27 (first complete green bar before the market close) and sell it between July 7-11 and in this case, every day's close is higher than the close on Jul 27. Why buy and hold Apple stock the whole year for pathic returns? Trading the top quality stock with our chart is the way to go, you've got fundamental and the best technical.
The model knows when to get into the market with low risk setup. Believe it or not, Google was trading just under $500 since June 17, 2011, however our model knows to get in on June 28-29. Was this a coinsident? I don't think so. My point is why risking your money on the market from June 7 (the first red bar) to June 28? The complehensive chart was suggesting when to get into Google for a bounce play while the broad market was heading south. We can still make money by buying on June 29, 2011. This is a whooping 6.8% gain in 6 days!
There is a summary page which you can access from the bottom of the front page which contains all the daily trends for SPDR sector ETFs, you can take a look here:
http://www.stocktrendcharts.com/trend/spdr-sector-etf-trends
There also some specific aggregated trends for short, mid and long term trends where you can access from the bottom of the front page under the "Aggregated Trends" category. As of this writing, we don't cover all the sectors for the aggregated trends but we definitely will add it later.
Great! Thank you. I think I found all of these links. However, my question was more to do with interpretation. I can pull up any number of sector related charts on your site showing the last 6 months. What I'd like help with is to understand the best way to read the 6 month trend chart to "look forward" into the next quarter. I am forming some of my own opinions but would appreciate it if you would share some of your lessons learned in this scenario.
Best regards
For a longer period projection, my recommendation is to subscribe to monthly trend charts which is available to subscribers, you can follow this link to subscribe:
http://www.stocktrendcharts.com/service/monthly-trend-charts-subscription
The monthly trend charts work the same way as weekly trend charts, it helps you to determine a bigger trend over a longer period. Catching a multi month trend could be very profitable if do it correctly. Correctly I mean you have to follow some of the constraints here:
1. Solid fundamental (not everybody can do it as it related to accounting principles). We have started some fundamental analysis to rank and give score to stocks on different categories and this is valuable to someone who doesn't have fundamental analysis background.
2. Sector cycle. The better the stock, the higher price can be achieved during a whole sector rally. Also the best stocks in the sector will lead first, such as solar energy rally started last Dec, FSLR was the one to lead.
3. Recent market condition, this is crucial because most stocks are correlated to the main market (check out the beta value of the stock, bigger than 1 mean more volatile while less than 1 means less volatile compared to the market).
Whenever I can't determine the the current trend from daily trend chart, I will look up the weekly trend chart to help on my thoughts and find the hint for a bigger wave and same for monthly trend chart, a complement to weekly trend chart.
It depends on your investment strategy, short or longer term. We defined short term in terms of days (daily chart) and mid term in terms of weeks (week chart). By looking at the chart, it may correct soon but how deep, then it depends on the weekly chart. The weekly chart shows pretty low risk and the first green bar show up so far (make sure it still show by the end of the week to be a valid one). Also I have checked the fundamental of this stock looks promising. As a short term trader, I will take some profit off the table if any, but if I am a long term investor I would rather hold or sell a covered call and watch the turn of the major market because stocks are correlated to the main market in some what degree. I will post my answer later tonight on the forum for others to share.
The risk is an indicator for trading, short to mid term wise (we are talking about 1-3 weeks time frame here), Nasdaq would be less risk to take position compared to Dow and S&P in this case. However it doesn't mean Nasdaq is a better investment than the other two. You can have something very risky and very good for investment and something very low risk all the time but very bad for investment. Remember we need to factor in time when we do investment. For example, we can buy something at very low risk and cheap but it doesn't appreciate overtime. Is this a good investment? Definitely not.
Attached the weekly chart as a reference for your qcuestions (actually, you can try to copy and paste image and post it along with your forum topic). Anyway back to your questions, on Dec 31, there is a red short term bar mixed with green long and mid term bars. What that means is the model suggested that the short term wise, there are more sellers but long and mid term wise there are buyers and usually we would see price consolidation here because short term traders are taking profits but still have long and mid term buyers accumulating. People usually call this "consolidation". In addition to the bars, the light green background suggested that the market is going to go up. However this mixed signals won't help on trading, it is better to wait till the model to give clear uni direction signals.
Here I will give you an example of taking position which is what I did on Mar 22, 2011.
First we saw a downward trend since Mar 7 for 10 days and we saw the first green bar on Mar 21. Usually after the first green bar happens, there should be a better price that you can trade lower than the first green bar and that would be a good time to take positions. Why? It is because we have at least one confirmation on upward trend (green bar) and we can see if it switches back to red bar (even though it is uncommon) the next day. Just in case it is a false rally, we don't have to be trapped. Most of the time, a regular rally, the price won't spike that much and should have enough time to take positions. As you can see the background in light green also suggest that the stock will do better in the next couple days which it actually comes out as it suggested. I have mentioned this is a typical "Bull Mood Consolidation" pattern in my other article. Also, there are many strategies to take position which I am not going to explain here.
This is an example show a bounce, as you can see the green bar raising too fast compared to normal behavior (you can tell if the movement is normal or not as you read more charts). The red bars are similar to the above chart, however the background in red suggested that the stock probably not doing good in the next couple days. And the final outcome shows it is a false rally (yes the price went up) but if you look at the closing price, it flucturates a lot and we don't want that to happen after taking positinos and the smart way is to get out or you will get shaken out. Bottom line is the project from the model won't be reliable. It is luck that makes money for you but not the model.
The black portion supposed to be in green color, the reason there is a black for the corresponding term (long, mid, short) is because the trend has reached historical high and if the next bar is in red, most of the time the trend is changing from upward to downward and you would see consecutive red bars follows.
The magic number 8 is just an arbitrary number. Most of the charts usually takes 8 to 10 days to correct. This number can be vary depends on the condition of the market and the particular stock. Currently there is no statistic done to determine the average number of downward trends for each stocks. However, after a significant number of downward trend days it is normal that the stock back to upward trend and it works like a cycle most of the time. It is market cycle plus cycle of that particular stock.
Ok, found the problem it was in the source code and it is now fixed. There should be no more last bar spike after market close.
The page trend symbol (latest trend) should now match the last bar of the chart. It was the web framework caching problem.
On "My Flagged List" there is a category named "Risk %". Am I correct in interpreting the greater percentage indicates the greater risk in the direction of the "Trend" (green-headed up or red-headed down) in getting into a trade with that given stock or option? Thank you very much.
Tom
Yes, the risk on the flagged list works like the risk % on the front pages. The higher the risk (100 is the highest) and that suggests not to be on the long side.
I tried to get daily/weekly charts for IL (IntraLinks Holdings, Inc. (NYSE)), a $1.5 billion technology company and for KRA (Kraton Performance Polymers, Inc. (NYSE)), a $1.3 billion materials company.
The search response for IL comes back with charts for ILF, an ETF, and the search response for KRA comes back with no chart and the words "There are no results to display".
These two companies are the "Chart of the Day" companies from my WWW.InvestedCentral.Com account for May 5 and 6 and I like to cross check their recommendations against your Stock Trend Chart data. Can you correct this?
Hi rdagen5,
Thank you for notifying us about the bug and the missing ticker. As for LF, please type a space after LF. e.g. type "LF " for the stock. As for KRA, we have added the stock to our library and from now on, it will be available for future daily trends.
Thanks,
Ray