Submitted by Nameless Hero on Thu, 09/09/2010 - 07:07.
Very interesting, the trend model reported the major trend of those 500 stocks are down (more bear count than bull count). However the S&P index opened higher today, let's see if the market will reflect what is really happening underneath.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Sat, 08/28/2010 - 15:15.
The market is switching the side pretty quick on Friday as we can see many stocks changed to up trends. As the S&P index rallied more than 17 points, IMHO not that much. But the underlining strength we can observe from the bull/bear counts it was amazing! I expect this rally will last longer than expected.
Submitted by HumbleInvestor on Wed, 08/11/2010 - 11:40.
The triangle seems to be resolving finally... Could we have a longer time frame for this Bull bear trend count especially a 20 day simple moving average would be great to see, so we could and co-relate with price and volume charts for some medium to long term cues on strength of the markets. Good job again ! Thanks for the daily updates.
Changed to line chart view, this may be better than stacked area chart except the total count of stocks in either upward or downward trend is not obvious.
The recent market has a very high volatility of trend reversing, the daily trends last a lot shorter than usual. What does that tells us? When the overall market trend is up, the price of most stocks were not making a new high or so, most of them are just bounded by resistance. We still don't have clear signal where the market is heading, it seems strong but not doing much.
By looking at the bull counts, it is dropped to a relatively low level where the bear count start picking up. Large cap indicator signaled a turn as well, one interesting thing is I got many sell signals yesterday but the index just dropped a little which I expect it gaps down this morning this is not true. My conclusion is the overall trending is downward but just be caution of this turning point in case there are some intervention again or second round of Quantitative Easing.
Short term top? That is what I interpret from multiple indicators. The bull count dropped quite a bit and total number of stocks in trend decreased tremendously and this could signal a trend reversal. Also the large cap indicator signaled a turn as well. Let's see.
Last update 12:31pm PST: Today we have the count increased back to single direction which is up. Short term wise this rally is strong enough to affect the weekly chart however the monthly chart still show a bearish trend since April. We will see if this is a major trend change by the end of this month and have a confirmed signal.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Thu, 07/22/2010 - 10:00.
Today we saw both the bull and bear count increases with bull outnumbered bear, what that means? The market is going both direction with bull having the upper hand. S&P shoot up more than 24 points as of this writing, the market looks strong but the stock underneath has conflicts and not going in the same direction. This is not good for swing trades because the S&P index is acting randomly instead of going one way to the other. As my last post "Fake or Break" the market need to make up it mind. If S&P can break the 1100 barrier then I believe it is a break out otherwise it is just try to fake the bears. One more note, the S&P index looks very similar to April 26 where the rally cant break the previous high and then dive really fast, so it is better to avoid going long until the market make up its mind.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Wed, 07/21/2010 - 10:24.
The market change just dropped big as of this writing, DOW down 98 points. I will update the count before the close to get a better idea. If the things have to happen, it will eventually.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Wed, 07/21/2010 - 09:48.
Just updated the count the chart shows the bull count increased rapidly as of this writing, there is a chance the market goes higher or just make another reversal and go down fast. We are at a pivot point now. If S&P breaks the previous high last week, then sentiment wise the market could go up higher. But if we get a sell off the rest of the week then the market is more likely to resume the down trend. The weekly close is important here.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Tue, 07/20/2010 - 15:44.
Just did a update after market, the bull count jumped a bit compared to earlier and the bear count dropped a bit as well. Could this be the same scenario happened on Jun 25? What we have here is a mixed signal and should be cautious that a trend reversal is placed again even though it is very rarely based on the past experience. If S&P breaks the previous high couple days ago and also breaks 1100 then we know definitely the short term trend is reversed to the up side. The monthly chart still show bearish as of this writing.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Tue, 07/20/2010 - 10:51.
The bear count still stays high where the bull count stays low. We might see the index decline in the next couple days. On top of that, the large cap indicator shows 300+ large cap stock under down trend as well. Let's see how it unfolds.
We have a higher open and a late bounce today, however based on the model these are just bounce and not a real rally. Believe it or not, the market has quite strong innate power to support in a down turn cycle.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:12.
The large cap indicator also confirmed this reversal, hope that you have made some money from my chart. As of this writing, the market still one more hour to close and I won't be surprised the short will get squeeze again but this is a perfect opportunity to go short on any spike. Next Monday we may see a higher open but it is just a dead cat bounce. This down trend expected to last 6 or days, please refer to the Stock Market Trend page for more details.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Fri, 07/16/2010 - 07:27.
The bull count sharply dropped as of this now, market top possibly in place. I believe any spike would be a good opportunity to go short, DOW may touch back to the opening today around 10300 before the close.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:19.
No problem and thanks for your interest. I need more comments from all of you to discuss what I have done so far so that I know which part I am missing and improve on it. Please feel free to discuss and this is a open platform for small investors like us and any input does help each others.
Submitted by ytseschew on Fri, 07/16/2010 - 22:06.
I've been reading through the site and really like the graphs for the common low risk setup pattern -- they're very easy to use. The 'ride the wave' suggestions to use SSO and SDS to swing trade the SP500 were also excellent. The only suggestion I have so far is that I'd like to see a direct link to the 'broad market trends' page on the left hand side. I have to dig around to find that page when I come to the home page.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Sat, 07/17/2010 - 08:15.
Thanks for the comment on low risk pattern, this is the first pattern I discovered the pattern itself is quite repetitive and that's why I named it "Common". I would encourage any of you to discover more pattern from the chart so that others can benefit from it. As for the SSO and SDS combo, personally I like to trade S&P more than DOW because it contains most of the best stock in it and you don't really need to diversify on individual stocks. Say you know the directory of the market but the S&P is not moving at the speed you want, then SDS and SSO is good in this case. One short coming on these leverage stock is they deteriorate over time, instead short on the opposite one would be an upper hand. I will include the Market Trend block on the left hand side on each page. Let me know if that works for you.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Wed, 07/14/2010 - 10:47.
Today we saw the count of stock in up trend keep decreasing while the count of stock in down trend slightly increased and they looks very similar to Jun 17. Last time it took about 2-3 more days before we can see S&P significantly drop. I won't be surprised if this takes couple more days to let the market to determine the direction. I think we should not assume any bull or bear market here otherwise we would lean on one side and miss the other parts. What I think is to trade on the other side when one side is trading at extremely level to take the advantage between greed and fear of the traders. This is a patient game!
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Mon, 07/12/2010 - 11:19.
To measure the S&P trend is tricky, one can't just do this by just looking at the index and ignore the underneath movement of each component stocks. The purpose of this chart is to show the small movement and direction of the underlining stocks. Today most of the time S&P stays flat, however the bull count started to decrease quite a bit while the bear count increased as well. The change is quite significant but still not enough to judge the trend is reversed yet. I would wait for 1 or 2 more days to let the picture unfold more clearly. Put in trades earlier doesn't mean you make more profit, the key is to make your move more accurate than to rush it.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Fri, 07/09/2010 - 10:03.
Today we can see most of the stocks are still in up trend, a reversal of the S&P 500 (turn to down trend) would in place if the number of bull count shrink significantly as Jun 15 and we should still have plenty of time to switch to the short side.
Submitted by Nameless Hero on Thu, 07/08/2010 - 21:21.
So far so good, the chart gave hints for the recent trend change and is quite reliable. We saw starting from Jul1 the bull count was increasing and on the other side the bear count started to decrease which hints a reversal on S&P 500 index was blending. And if you went long on Jul2 you should have made significantly over 50% if you did buy calls at strike on SPY or just bought the bear or leverage bear fund. This chart could serve as one of my best collections of market leading indicator.
As for the new comers, this chart is still in prototype which means it is only for experimental and use it at your own risk. We will try to update it around 12pm PCT (1 hour before the close) during trading days. As we observe from the action between July 1 and July 2, we saw the total count of trending stock shrink significantly, this possibly signals a trend reversal of S&P index. The second hint is the total count of trending up stocks increased while the number of trending down stocks decreased and this further gives hint of reversal here. How big is the reversal? This is no firm answer on it, the only thing we can tell is the market is trying to turn to the up side after consecutive down days. We combine this with other model outputs (not published yet) to forecast there is a bounce on Monday today (listed on the Stock Market Trend page) which it did happened which a nice gap up this morning. The other output includes a measure of accumulated movements of over 200 large cap stocks and this already signals a turn of the trend and this usually last 6-8 days once it's turned. We also have another model output by measuring 3 major indices including DOW, S&P 500 and Nasdaq which all signaled a bottom here. Let's see how the market unfold to us in the next couple days.
Today the SP 500 is in full fledge of trending downwards, more stocks joins the downtrend. For a reversal of the currently down trend, we may see the total number of counts shrink first and then more bullish counts instead of bearish counts. I will not be able to update around 12pm PCT as usual but I will update once again later today after the market close.
I have tried couple possibilities but none of those ratio gives easily to follow hints or it is inconsistent.
I have tried the following:
Bull Count/Bear Count
Bull Count day/(day-1)
Bear Count day/(day-1)
Bull Count - Bear Count ( this one gives easier to digest data).
I believe the problem is the count changes too fast to form an eye-catchable pattern. But the good news is the count does provides a leading indicator which is extremely useful to sense the current market condition. Gives some more time and we should have a better understanding on how to use it.
The above chart depicts how many stocks in S&P 500 index are in either up or down trend. The green area corresponds to number of stocks are in up trend where the red area corresponds to number of stocks in down trend. The total area may not add up to 500 because some of the stocks are neutral. This is very helpful to spot and predict the movement of the overall market. As you can see on Jun7-8 there were over 400 stocks under down trend which implies the market was over sold or super bearish. Also on Jun 18 many of the stocks were turning to down trend implies the market losing stream. I would use this chart for market condition rather than for trend prediction since the correlation of the count is weakly correlated to the index.
The individual stock trends were determined by our model in order to produce such chart and this is an early prototype of a useful indicator. The model is available for anyone, simple enter your own stock symbol and a chart will be shown on the right hand side with daily trend, the weekly trends are only available to registered users, please take a minute or two to register with us first. Have fun!
Also, please feel free to leave comments whether this chart is helpful or not.
Very interesting, the trend
Very interesting, the trend model reported the major trend of those 500 stocks are down (more bear count than bull count). However the S&P index opened higher today, let's see if the market will reflect what is really happening underneath.
The market is switching the
The market is switching the side pretty quick on Friday as we can see many stocks changed to up trends. As the S&P index rallied more than 17 points, IMHO not that much. But the underlining strength we can observe from the bull/bear counts it was amazing! I expect this rally will last longer than expected.
I will be on vacation
I will be on vacation starting tomorrow and will be back next week. The charts and market trend page won't be updated until then.
See you next week.
Looks like the market is
Looks like the market is cooking for a bounce.
Looks like a nice contracting triangle pattern.
The triangle seems to be resolving finally... Could we have a longer time frame for this Bull bear trend count especially a 20 day simple moving average would be great to see, so we could and co-relate with price and volume charts for some medium to long term cues on strength of the markets. Good job again ! Thanks for the daily updates.
Changed to line chart view,
Changed to line chart view, this may be better than stacked area chart except the total count of stocks in either upward or downward trend is not obvious.
Looks better..
Awesome ! I like the format..
Easier to comprehend
Thanks for the change in format. It is much easier to understand.
The recent market has a very
The recent market has a very high volatility of trend reversing, the daily trends last a lot shorter than usual. What does that tells us? When the overall market trend is up, the price of most stocks were not making a new high or so, most of them are just bounded by resistance. We still don't have clear signal where the market is heading, it seems strong but not doing much.
Lost Fuel?
By looking at the bull counts, it is dropped to a relatively low level where the bear count start picking up. Large cap indicator signaled a turn as well, one interesting thing is I got many sell signals yesterday but the index just dropped a little which I expect it gaps down this morning this is not true. My conclusion is the overall trending is downward but just be caution of this turning point in case there are some intervention again or second round of Quantitative Easing.
Chart last update: 12:58pm PCT.
Short term top? That is what
Short term top? That is what I interpret from multiple indicators. The bull count dropped quite a bit and total number of stocks in trend decreased tremendously and this could signal a trend reversal. Also the large cap indicator signaled a turn as well. Let's see.
Last update 12:31pm PST:
Last update 12:31pm PST: Today we have the count increased back to single direction which is up. Short term wise this rally is strong enough to affect the weekly chart however the monthly chart still show a bearish trend since April. We will see if this is a major trend change by the end of this month and have a confirmed signal.
Last updated 8:28am PST.
Last updated 8:28am PST. The bear and bull switching the side and the S&P is trading at heavy resistance.
Today we saw both the bull
Today we saw both the bull and bear count increases with bull outnumbered bear, what that means? The market is going both direction with bull having the upper hand. S&P shoot up more than 24 points as of this writing, the market looks strong but the stock underneath has conflicts and not going in the same direction. This is not good for swing trades because the S&P index is acting randomly instead of going one way to the other. As my last post "Fake or Break" the market need to make up it mind. If S&P can break the 1100 barrier then I believe it is a break out otherwise it is just try to fake the bears. One more note, the S&P index looks very similar to April 26 where the rally cant break the previous high and then dive really fast, so it is better to avoid going long until the market make up its mind.
The market change just
The market change just dropped big as of this writing, DOW down 98 points. I will update the count before the close to get a better idea. If the things have to happen, it will eventually.
Just updated the count the
Just updated the count the chart shows the bull count increased rapidly as of this writing, there is a chance the market goes higher or just make another reversal and go down fast. We are at a pivot point now. If S&P breaks the previous high last week, then sentiment wise the market could go up higher. But if we get a sell off the rest of the week then the market is more likely to resume the down trend. The weekly close is important here.
Just did a update after
Just did a update after market, the bull count jumped a bit compared to earlier and the bear count dropped a bit as well. Could this be the same scenario happened on Jun 25? What we have here is a mixed signal and should be cautious that a trend reversal is placed again even though it is very rarely based on the past experience. If S&P breaks the previous high couple days ago and also breaks 1100 then we know definitely the short term trend is reversed to the up side. The monthly chart still show bearish as of this writing.
The bear count still stays
The bear count still stays high where the bull count stays low. We might see the index decline in the next couple days. On top of that, the large cap indicator shows 300+ large cap stock under down trend as well. Let's see how it unfolds.
We have a higher open and a
We have a higher open and a late bounce today, however based on the model these are just bounce and not a real rally. Believe it or not, the market has quite strong innate power to support in a down turn cycle.
The large cap indicator also
The large cap indicator also confirmed this reversal, hope that you have made some money from my chart. As of this writing, the market still one more hour to close and I won't be surprised the short will get squeeze again but this is a perfect opportunity to go short on any spike. Next Monday we may see a higher open but it is just a dead cat bounce. This down trend expected to last 6 or days, please refer to the Stock Market Trend page for more details.
Have a good weekend.
Nameless Hero
The bull count sharply
The bull count sharply dropped as of this now, market top possibly in place. I believe any spike would be a good opportunity to go short, DOW may touch back to the opening today around 10300 before the close.
very useful
I've found this chart very informative. Thanks for posting it and maintaining it.
No problem and thanks for
No problem and thanks for your interest. I need more comments from all of you to discuss what I have done so far so that I know which part I am missing and improve on it. Please feel free to discuss and this is a open platform for small investors like us and any input does help each others.
link to broad market trends
I've been reading through the site and really like the graphs for the common low risk setup pattern -- they're very easy to use. The 'ride the wave' suggestions to use SSO and SDS to swing trade the SP500 were also excellent. The only suggestion I have so far is that I'd like to see a direct link to the 'broad market trends' page on the left hand side. I have to dig around to find that page when I come to the home page.
Thanks for the comment on low
Thanks for the comment on low risk pattern, this is the first pattern I discovered the pattern itself is quite repetitive and that's why I named it "Common". I would encourage any of you to discover more pattern from the chart so that others can benefit from it. As for the SSO and SDS combo, personally I like to trade S&P more than DOW because it contains most of the best stock in it and you don't really need to diversify on individual stocks. Say you know the directory of the market but the S&P is not moving at the speed you want, then SDS and SSO is good in this case. One short coming on these leverage stock is they deteriorate over time, instead short on the opposite one would be an upper hand. I will include the Market Trend block on the left hand side on each page. Let me know if that works for you.
A quick update, the bull
A quick update, the bull stock count still stay high and this implies the rally is not ended yet. It is hard to believe but that's the fact.
Today we saw the count of
Today we saw the count of stock in up trend keep decreasing while the count of stock in down trend slightly increased and they looks very similar to Jun 17. Last time it took about 2-3 more days before we can see S&P significantly drop. I won't be surprised if this takes couple more days to let the market to determine the direction. I think we should not assume any bull or bear market here otherwise we would lean on one side and miss the other parts. What I think is to trade on the other side when one side is trading at extremely level to take the advantage between greed and fear of the traders. This is a patient game!
To measure the S&P trend is
To measure the S&P trend is tricky, one can't just do this by just looking at the index and ignore the underneath movement of each component stocks. The purpose of this chart is to show the small movement and direction of the underlining stocks. Today most of the time S&P stays flat, however the bull count started to decrease quite a bit while the bear count increased as well. The change is quite significant but still not enough to judge the trend is reversed yet. I would wait for 1 or 2 more days to let the picture unfold more clearly. Put in trades earlier doesn't mean you make more profit, the key is to make your move more accurate than to rush it.
Today we can see most of the
Today we can see most of the stocks are still in up trend, a reversal of the S&P 500 (turn to down trend) would in place if the number of bull count shrink significantly as Jun 15 and we should still have plenty of time to switch to the short side.
So far so good, the chart
So far so good, the chart gave hints for the recent trend change and is quite reliable. We saw starting from Jul1 the bull count was increasing and on the other side the bear count started to decrease which hints a reversal on S&P 500 index was blending. And if you went long on Jul2 you should have made significantly over 50% if you did buy calls at strike on SPY or just bought the bear or leverage bear fund. This chart could serve as one of my best collections of market leading indicator.
As for the new comers, this
As for the new comers, this chart is still in prototype which means it is only for experimental and use it at your own risk. We will try to update it around 12pm PCT (1 hour before the close) during trading days. As we observe from the action between July 1 and July 2, we saw the total count of trending stock shrink significantly, this possibly signals a trend reversal of S&P index. The second hint is the total count of trending up stocks increased while the number of trending down stocks decreased and this further gives hint of reversal here. How big is the reversal? This is no firm answer on it, the only thing we can tell is the market is trying to turn to the up side after consecutive down days. We combine this with other model outputs (not published yet) to forecast there is a bounce on Monday today (listed on the Stock Market Trend page) which it did happened which a nice gap up this morning. The other output includes a measure of accumulated movements of over 200 large cap stocks and this already signals a turn of the trend and this usually last 6-8 days once it's turned. We also have another model output by measuring 3 major indices including DOW, S&P 500 and Nasdaq which all signaled a bottom here. Let's see how the market unfold to us in the next couple days.
Update the count on Jun 25 as
Update the count on Jun 25 as well, this is due to data changed after market. Expect this chart will be updated once in the morning 10am and 12pm PCT.
Admin
StockTrendCharts.com
Today the SP 500 in full
Today the SP 500 is in full fledge of trending downwards, more stocks joins the downtrend. For a reversal of the currently down trend, we may see the total number of counts shrink first and then more bullish counts instead of bearish counts. I will not be able to update around 12pm PCT as usual but I will update once again later today after the market close.
Bull bear trend graphic
The bull bear trend graphic is easy to read. At a glance we can determine the ratio. Notice the ratio can change dramatically in only one trading day.
I have tried couple
I have tried couple possibilities but none of those ratio gives easily to follow hints or it is inconsistent.
I have tried the following:
Bull Count/Bear Count
Bull Count day/(day-1)
Bear Count day/(day-1)
Bull Count - Bear Count ( this one gives easier to digest data).
I believe the problem is the count changes too fast to form an eye-catchable pattern. But the good news is the count does provides a leading indicator which is extremely useful to sense the current market condition. Gives some more time and we should have a better understanding on how to use it.
The above chart depicts how
The above chart depicts how many stocks in S&P 500 index are in either up or down trend. The green area corresponds to number of stocks are in up trend where the red area corresponds to number of stocks in down trend. The total area may not add up to 500 because some of the stocks are neutral. This is very helpful to spot and predict the movement of the overall market. As you can see on Jun7-8 there were over 400 stocks under down trend which implies the market was over sold or super bearish. Also on Jun 18 many of the stocks were turning to down trend implies the market losing stream. I would use this chart for market condition rather than for trend prediction since the correlation of the count is weakly correlated to the index.
The individual stock trends were determined by our model in order to produce such chart and this is an early prototype of a useful indicator. The model is available for anyone, simple enter your own stock symbol and a chart will be shown on the right hand side with daily trend, the weekly trends are only available to registered users, please take a minute or two to register with us first. Have fun!
Also, please feel free to leave comments whether this chart is helpful or not.
Admin
StockTrendCharts.com