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2009-10-21

Updates everyday at 6pm pacific time. (due to the market volatility and data source).

How to use the signals:

It basically provides you a general idea of which way the market is trending, most of time the signals shows consecutively in one direction, thus helps us to identify the pivot point to either accumulate or sell.  For example, if the signal provides a consecutive of over 8 to 10 signals on down trend and the broad market indices are pretty flat, it means the risk to accumulate during that period is quite low and vice versa for selling decision as well.  The signals are pretty simple to use and simple is good. 

Additional strategy, please refer to my other article: Fish and Current Theory and Buy on down days and sell on up days.

Trend Term:

UP - A regular rally, expect it last more than 5 or more days.

DOWN - A regular correction, expect it last more than 5 or more days.

BOUNCE - A short rally, expect it last 3-5 days and usually this is a reactive rally due to down trend.

CONSOLIDATE - A mild pull back during a strong rally, usually this is close to the end of a bull cycle.

TOP - A short term top and a significant correction is expected to follow.

BOTTOM - A short term bottom and a significant rally is expected to follow.

ZIGZAG - The direction of the market is not clear, basically bull and bear are struggling to take the lead. 

Date TREND

Comment

9/17/2010   Subjected to change.
9/16/2010   Subjected to change.
9/15/2010   Subjected to change.
9/14/2010 Subjected to change.
9/13/2010 Subjected to change.
9/10/2010 UP Change from down to up, the large cap indicator gave an up today.  Risk to enter the market is intermediate to high.
9/9/2010 DOWN Subjected to change.
9/8/2010 TOP Possibly a reverse here, there still some rooms flipping to the upside.
9/7/2010 TOP Short term wise market loose stream.
9/3/2010 UP Subjected to change.
9/2/2010 UP Subjected to change.
9/1/2010 UP Changed from UP to uncertain.  Update: Today we have a hard rally, the model projects to up for at least another 2 days.  Let's see if this rally substain.
8/31/2010 UP
8/30/2010 UP
8/27/2010 UP Updated to UP.  Sorry but been too busy these days.  The large cap indicator indicated a strong buying spree was happened on Friday.  This could mark a major bottom since April.  
8/26/2010 DOWN Potential bottom?  Late update: Large cap indicator still points to down.
8/25/2010 DOWN Large cap indicator still points to down, but quite a number of stocks are signaled bottom. 
8/24/2010 DOWN Large cap indicator points to down and the S&P count points to the bear side, I believe the market is heading down.
8/23/2010

BOTTOM

or DOWN?

The model gives a "no movement" on the market, which means there is no one has intention driving the market to move.  It could be bottom if new money flows in or it could be a waterfall if money flowing out of the market.  I am trying not to give misleading signal here.  If we watch the S&P count graph, most of the stocks are in downward trend as of this writing.  I would think the market has a critical point to determine the direction here.
8/20/2010 DOWN  I will update this page when I come back from vacation.  Trade safely.
8/19/2010 BOUNCE  Bounce won't take more than 3 days usually.
8/18/2010 BOUNCE  Subject to change. 
8/17/2010 BOUNCE Beware of this is a big turn, it could turn into a rally.  Whether this next high a lower one or a higher one  determines the direction of the market.
8/16/2010 BOUNCE Bounced as expected.
8/13/2010 DOWN
8/12/2010 DOWN
8/11/2010 DOWN DOW dropped 200+ today, down as expected
8/10/2010 DOWN
8/9/2010 DOWN
8/6/2010 DOWN Down as model projected.
8/5/2010 UP/TOP A short term top is in placed, the market is deciding which way should go after this short term top.
8/4/2010 UP Model still projects up but it is close to a short term top.
8/3/2010 UP Model projected an upward trend from here, this upward wave would last at least another couple more days.
8/2/2010 UP A possibility of trend change again, we still need more data to confirm this reversal.
7/30/2010 DOWN Market is slowly stepping down.  However the bonds and gold shoot up today, would this be the signal where the stock will have a big sell off?
7/29/2010 DOWN On schedule.
7/28/2010 DOWN Update 8:32am PCT: Correction on track.
7/27/2010 TOP Model projected a down today, let's see if that stays before the close, the market has been slowed down and may signal a short term top.
7/26/2010 UP The S&P broke 1100 but the short term top still in place.
7/23/2010 UP Morning update:  The model shows the market still in up trend, however it is quite close to the top again.  If the market lose fuels here, Today could be the top, otherwise early next week will be topping again.  If it does, this is very bearish and could signal a sell of because S&P didn't break 1100 and made a double top.
7/22/2010 UP Model projects an up but we are at critical point, the S&P need to break 1100 to confirm it is in bull cycle.  The market may not sustain.
7/21/2010 UP

The model produced an up as of this writing, it was switching from a down and magically produce an up instead.  This rarely happens in the past.  Both daily and weekly signals an up, however the monthly still signals a down.  This is kind of a mixed signal.  There still chances the market could turn back down to complete a nice down pattern.  I believe the previous high in S&P is the key and it is sitting right below  the MA50 line.

Update 11:40am PCT: The market just make a dive of over 100 DOW points, the daily close is import here, if only small amount of stocks leading the market, it is not healthy.

7/20/2010 DOWN

The model still projects a down trend ahead of us.  Based on that, any bounce or intra rally should not be trusted unless S&P breaks 1100 points.  Actually any bounces are good opportunities to go short. There are at least 6 more trading days for the market to reach another short term bottom.

Update: Today we have a higher close but a lower low which is interesting to see how market can switch from bearish to bullish so quickly.  There is no confirmation of a trend reversal again where the indicator still shows bearish.  Let's see how it unfold tomorrow.  Today's rally could be a gap filling of the gap down 2 days ago.

7/19/2010 DOWN According to model, any spikes would be a dead cat bounce. 
7/16/2010 TOP

Assume we have a reversal after option expiration day (3rd week Friday of the month).

Today we have a big drop of the market.  The large cap and S&P bull bear count confirms the trend reversal.  Any spike is a good short entry point here.

7/15/2010 UP Market dropped in the morning but it still has some fuel underneath and it might take 1-2 more days to finish this up trend.
7/14/2010 UP Market extends rally and it is quite strong.  Other indicators such as large cap indicator still points to up, this rally may last longer than expected and may form into a real one like the one in March 2009 if it breaks couple resistances ahead.
7/13/2010 UP This is tricky, the market could correct mildly and make another high or it could resume the down trend here.  Also depends on the global market like Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Index are the places to watch.
7/12/2010 TOP I would take some profit from here, always help.
7/9/2010 BOUNCE This bounce may lead to a real rally, let's assume this is a bounce.  Also watch the SP500 Bull Bear Trend Count for hint whether the trend is changing or not. 
7/8/2010 BOUNCE Subject to change.
7/7/2010 BOUNCE Subject to change.
7/6/2010 BOUNCE Bounce as expected, DOW rallied hard for 280 points.
7/5/2010 BOUNCE Bounce as expected, we had a 100+ points gap up this morning however the rally was sold off to the close.  The close in positive may lead the bounce continue.
7/2/2010 BOTTOM Subject to change.  Model targeted a short term bottom.
7/1/2010 BOTTOM Changed to bottom, model signals a bottom is near.
6/30/2010 DOWN As expected.
6/29/2010 DOWN Stalled for 3 days and finally broke the support.  DOW down 240+ points as of this writing.
6/28/2010 DOWN Stalled.
6/25/2010 DOWN Stalled.
6/24/2010 DOWN My charting analysis suggested that by the end of June, SP 500 index will meet 1012 and by the end of July, SP 500 index will meet 986.  This is a manual wild analysis (not from model), please DYODD.
6/23/2010 DOWN Down as the model suggested.
6/22/2010 DOWN Most of my indicator points to down, I would say it is confirmed.
6/21/2010 TOP

Market still have force to push up more, mainly by foreign market.  Expect the rally to continue for couple more days,  Tight stop applies on shorts.

Update 12:31pm PCT.  Interesting enough to have a big rally at the open to shake out shorts and reverse in 180 degree.  Another example of news can not overcome the market cycle, new today like China allows Yuan to appreciate doesn't have a market in falling cycle.

6/18/2010 TOP Market has a sign of short term top.
6/17/2010 TOP 7:25am PCT Update: Perfect day to go short.
6/16/2010 UP  
6/15/2010 UP
6/14/2010 UP Today we saw the sell off most of the time.  The model still projects to up.  If tomorrow we see another sell off, the model may have enough signal to point to DOWN.
     
6/11/2010 UP The market had a strong rally since the bottom is formed.  There still risk on this rally where people call it a bear market rally or dead cat bounce, or it could be a real rally.  I will be on vacation today and not able to follow the market.  Thought I protect my profit with put options on SPY.  The market may have a correction from here but whether it make a lower low of a higher low is unknown.
6/10/2010 UP The market moved in the expected direction, how long this rally last?  There is no answer for it, at least short term wise.
6/9/2010 BOTTOM Model points to up.
6/8/2010 BOTTOM Update: Both daily and weekly signal points to bottom, this could be a double bottom pattern.  If the market saturates (not moving much), a multi week rally is possible.
6/7/2010 DOWN The market may not go down much from here due to the short term bottom is close.  
6/4/2010 DOWN

6/7 Correction: Model points down.

 Model still points up, what interested me is natural gas has a big rally, gold rally and oil drops a bit today despite the dollar has a big rally.  Could this be a hint of inflation coming?

6/3/2010 UP

9:12am PST Update: Model still projects up.

Model shows mixed signal today, based on today's market actions we could have just experience a middle term bottom.  If S&P 500 index at 1120 is taken out, a big right shoulder will likely form to finish this bear market rally since March 2009.   I would think it is less likely we will see a higher high if we have a rally. 

6/2/2010 UP Targeting S&P 500 to hit 1120 and pulls back.
6/1/2010 UP Model still shows up, market up a little bit but gold gapped up today due to tension in Israel.
5/28/2010 UP .
5/27/2010 UP Model shows up.
5/26/2010 UP Short term bounce play, the market start higher but gradually sell back down and accelerate before the close.  However the Asia market recovered with some gains and could be a good start of this bounce play.
5/25/2010 BOTTOM Bottom, believe it or not.
5/24/2010 DOWN

Model project positive as of now on most stocks, I will post confirmation later today.  It is always better to wait before the close.

12:00pm update: The market has not bottomed yet, just be cautious here.  But you may find some really nice bargains.

5/21/2010 DOWN A bull trap rally, don't trust it.  It is most like a short covering or squeeze.
5/20/2010 DOWN As expected, DOW went down over 370 points.
5/19/2010 DOWN Some stocks may have already bottom but the S&P index still heading down for 3-4 days before finally bottoming out for a bounce or rally. 
5/18/2010 DOWN Bond up quite a bit here.  It is a warning sign, tight stop is needed.  Possibly another down wave coming.
5/17/2010 DOWN Model projects 1-2 more down days for the market to settle and bottom.  The market is due for a rally, however the scale on this coming rally is uncertain and the rally could just make a lower high which means the Mar 2009 game would be over.  I tend to believe this is the case because most stocks are trading under or near the last support - MA200 and they could just drop below the MA200 and signal a massive sell off.
5/14/2010 DOWN
5/13/2010 DOWN As expected today, the SP500 dropped 1.2% 1 hour before the market close.
5/12/2010 DOWN Bounce may have completed.
5/11/2010 DOWN Projected to bounce.
5/10/2010 DOWN Projected to bounce.
5/7/2010 DOWN Projected to bounce.  Banking sector looks a bargain here.
5/6/2010 DOWN Update: The market is at its short term bottom. A bounce is near but the overall trend still down.
5/5/2010 DOWN A bounce is coming.
5/4/2010 DOWN Both daily and weekly trend changed to bearish.
5/3/2010 ZIGZAG Consolidating.
4/30/2010 BOTTOMING  Drop as expected.
4/29/2010 BOTTOMING  It may make one more drop to finish the correction.  The market is so strong that it doesn't like correction.
4/28/2010 DOWN Consolidating.
4/27/2010 TOPPING As expected, a 200+ down on DOW today.
4/26/2010 UP  
4/23/2010 UP  
4/22/2010 UP  
4/21/2010 UP The model projects an up even the correction cycle not finished yet.  The behavior of the market is quite different from last year where the market would finish the correction cycle and swing back.  This time the market just keep staying in the middle after a little pull back and gradually go back up.  There always some hidden support or new buyers joins when the pull back started for couple days.  As we know there won't be infinite buyers and based on Elliot Wave theory, the last 5the wave will be the most powerful one.  Let's see how it unfolds.  As mentioned in the other post, gold has already left the station.
4/20/2010 DOWN Strong consolidation, there is not much room to go short.
4/19/2010 DOWN Bounced today, this leveled out last week's correction, but beware of this rally top!
4/16/2010 TOPPING Just get a heads up, USD is at it's cyclic low, mixed signal favors topping of market.  DOW may retest 11k before rally back.
4/15/2010 UP Projected to go up.
4/14/2010 UP The market turns up during the consolidate phase.  Well it haven't finish it yet, but the model projects to up as of now.
4/13/2010 DOWN Consolidate.
4/12/2010 DOWN Projected the market in consolidation mode. 
4/9/2010 DOWN Consolidating, with such a consolidation the next rally could be serve!  Projecting couple more trading days for this consolidation to end.
4/8/2010 DOWN Consolidate.
4/7/2010 DOWN Consolidate.
4/6/2010 DOWN Consolidate.
4/5/2010 DOWN Consolidate.
4/1/2010 DOWN Consolidating and with a strong close.
3/31/2010 ZIGZAG After the market made a small consolidation, it could possibly re-enter rally mode.
3/30/2010 DOWN  
3/29/2010 DOWN This week would be in correction or consolidating phase.
3/26/2010 DOWN Market still up, this down turn could be a consolidation.  The signal is relative to the strength of the current market.  For a strong market, the down trend could be flat.
3/25/2010 UP Model still projects up.
3/24/2010 UP Model projection.  
3/23/2010 UP The market found its way.
3/22/2010  ZIGZAG There are rooms for both direction but I prefer to lean on the consolidation (flat) side. 
3/19/2010 UP The force to push up is weak, could be a trend turning here.
3/18/2010 UP Projected.
3/17/2010 UP From now on, I will post one day ahead to project the coming trend.  Signals are projected by the trend model.
3/16/2010 UP  
3/15/2010 UP  
3/12/2010 UP
3/11/2010 UP   
3/10/2010 UP After consolidation phase, the market continues the uptrend.
3/9/2010 ZIGZAG  
3/8/2010

ZIGZAG

Zigzag is the the best term to describe the current market.  It could consolidate for a week before pushing up or it could correct from here.  I feel like the first one would happen.
3/5/2010 UP After a strong consolidation, the market picked the uptrend as the preferred direction.
3/4/2010 DOWN  
3/3/2010 DOWN If the market holds, that means it is consolidating and bottom line it is quite strong.
3/2/2010 DOWN Model gives today a down, signaling correction is just right at the corner.
3/1/2010 UP The trend may not sustain.  Beware of this zigzag and a possible short term market top, once the downtrend is confirmed, the projected down days would be around 6-10.
2/26/2010 UP The model produces a reverse trend signal, the rally may continue.  I am amazed to see how well the market performs under bad news.  Please forfeit yesterday's projection.  The gold could be a leading indicator of the overall market.
2/25/2010 DOWN Model points to down, projected now until the end of next week a correction or consolidation.
2/24/2010 DOWN Today the market rallied, however the model still points to down.
2/23/2010 DOWN We are on schedule.
2/22/2010 UP Model projected this is the market top, it may start correcting tomorrow.
2/19/2010 UP Model projected we are quite close to correction again.
2/18/2010 UP  
2/17/2010 UP
2/16/2010 UP
2/12/2010 UP  
2/11/2010 UP
2/10/2010 UP  
2/9/2010 UP Bounce or end of correction?
2/8/2010 DOWN We are at bottom again.
2/5/2010 DOWN We are close to the short term bottom again, model projects 1 or 2 more down days.
2/4/2010 DOWN Big reversal of the broad market.
2/3/2010 UP Model projects the market points to up.  Will the market sustain?  There is no answer for it.
2/2/2010 UP  
2/1/2010 UP The model projects an uptrend today and it is close to the bottom.  Let's see how this bounce work out to tell if the major trend has changed.
1/29/2010 DOWN 
1/28/2010 DOWN Back down, the landing was rough.
1/27/2010 UP Market start picking up but still weak.  Will this rally continue?
1/26/2010 FLAT China stocks still have some more to correct, gold sector is pretty much settle based on model projection.  Gold sector seems to be the leading indicator of global equities.
1/25/2010 DOWN Based on the model projection, we are at the short term bottom.
1/22/2010 DOWN Today a big drop again to speed up the downturn cycle.  Based on the past experience, next week we will see short term bottom.
1/21/2010 DOWN Today a big drop of the broad market, beyond our expectation.
1/20/2010 DOWN Downtrend continues, we still have half way to go, the model projects late next week would be the bottom, assuming this is still a bull market.
1/19/2010 UP A quick explanation of today's rally: The market is still in downtrend while it could have a strong consolidation.  This means the rally will not sustain the next couple days and try to find a solid bottom before continuous days of rally.  However, some of the stocks are at their bottom.  Some after market activities changed the signal to UP.  This pattern happens every time the market tries to correct, will this bull market continue?
1/15/2010 DOWN As the model projected, we are on schedule.  We are targeting the end of next week the lowest, so save your bullets.
1/14/2010 DOWN The model keeps showing downtrend, is this a strong consolidation before pushing up?
1/13/2010 DOWN Could be a side way correction or short opportunity.
1/12/2010 DOWN As predicted on Jan 7, this is the turn of the market. Model projects this downturn into late next week.
1/11/2010 UP Big drop of USD today put more fire on this rally.
1/8/2010 UP Gold spiked up and this may extend the broad market rally.
1/7/2010 UP We are very close to the turn of the broad market. Bank sector remains strong.
1/6/2010 UP  
1/5/2010 UP  
1/4/2010 UP The trend reversed again, either the market become more volatile or it is a strong reversal.
12/31/2009 DOWN I have researched on a new indicator and it seems working well to predict this downtrend yesterday. I will use it next time to warn a market turn. Let's see if this downtrend points to an end of this March rally or not.
12/30/2009 UP
12/29/2009 UP  
12/28/2009 UP Stock picking is the key.
12/24/2009 UP Let's see how the market unfold next week.
12/23/2009 UP The model still says up, however it also warns a market turn could happen anytime. The market is kinda lost its direction. The correction of USD helps re-fueling the market but it looks like the logs are not much left to keep the fire burning.
12/22/2009 UP The market doesn't look like fenzy anymore but rather more rational. The rally is mild as well compared to the last downtrend, because of strong USD.
12/21/2009 DOWN The model gave a slightly down for today, however the market can turn from here.
12/18/2009 DOWN The model projects that we are pretty close to the short term bottom again, that was a ABC wave formation. But how bullish this coming rally is unknown (might happen in early next week) and would tell the major direction of this March rally. A new high will  keep the party going, otherwise this would be a major correction triggered by the major USD trend change.
12/17/2009 DOWN By looking at today's action, the market is very bearish except commodities. The model projects there will be at least 3-4 more downtrend days, how deep is unknown.
12/16/2009 DOWN Market change mildly on its direction, to finish the left over of last correction. This could be the wave C.  I expect this coming correction would be a minor one.
12/15/2009 UP  Crude could be the lead for the next rally.  Holiday is close.
12/14/2009 UP  
12/11/2009 UP  
12/10/2009 FLAT Today could be the turn of the market.
12/09/2009 DOWN My model projects the market is very close to the short term bottom and will very possibly rally by this week or early next week.
12/08/2009 DOWN The market corrected mildly, given that Obama plans to spend out of recession which interprets as weak dollar.
12/07/2009 DOWN Excludes the sentiment (fear), my model shows the market is consolidating and projects the next rally starts couple days later.
12/04/2009 DOWN The market may tank from here, sharper than regular corrections because of the holiday rally interfere the regular market cycle and it has to catch up. When good news today doesn't boost the market anymore, that means it's topped.
12/03/2009 UP Figures barely makes an up here. The market could go either way, holiday rally interventing the regular cycle.
12/02/2009 UP Overall market starts to turn green. However, DOW still shows down a little. I would think DOW will follow the overall market.  If the market turns north from here, the consolidation was pretty powerful, could this coming wave be the final wave of this bear market rally?
12/01/2009 DOWN Model seems stubborn and still says down. One way to explain it is either the coming rally is extremely big or the market will catch up the correction and will have big down days. People may expect the market always rally in the beginning of the month and thus sellers become buyers.
11/30/2009 DOWN Overall market trend is still down, Retiresoon model projects this correction last for another couple more days before bottoming.
11/27/2009 DOWN Obviously, Dubai debt news is just a decoration. The market have its own cycle.
11/26/2009 N/A Happy Thanksgiving.
11/25/2009 DOWN We have mixed signal here, let's see if the market can sustain.
11/24/2009 UP Signal barely make it as an up with low volume which I doubt it is significant. Level is at it's pivot high based on past data, due for a correction.
11/23/2009 DOWN Holiday rally, could be short lived.
11/20/2009 DOWN A good example of "Short on Rally"
11/19/2009 DOWN Data shows bull and bear signal leveled, but I will give it a down since large cap companies are down. I believe tomorrow will be a good day to short on any rally. I bet you will hear all kinds of bad news in the next couple days to cool down the market.
11/18/2009 UP Don't short it yet.
11/17/2009 UP Close to top, based on the past trending data.
11/16/2009 UP  
11/13/2009 UP Amendment: trend is marginally up.  This creates mixed signals.
11/12/2009 DOWN High volatility, US dollar rally.
11/11/2009 UP  
11/10/2009 UP  
11/09/2009 UP  
11/06/2009 UP  
11/05/2009 UP  
11/04/2009 UP

Large cap companies signaled buy.

11/03/2009 DOWN

The trend is seesawing, however most stocks are close to their short term bottom.

11/02/2009 UP  
10/30/2009 DOWN High volatility.
10/29/2009 UP
10/28/2009 DOWN  
10/27/2009 DOWN  
10/26/2009 DOWN  
10/23/2009 DOWN  
10/22/2009 DOWN  
10/21/2009 DOWN  
10/20/2009 DOWN  
10/19/2009 UP  
10/16/2009 UP  
10/15/2009 UP  
10/14/2009 UP  
10/13/2009 UP  
10/12/2009 UP  
10/9/2009 UP  
10/8/2009 UP  
10/7/2009 UP  
10/6/2009 UP  
10/5/2009 DOWN  
10/2/2009 DOWN  
10/1/2009 DOWN  
9/30/2009 DOWN  
9/29/2009 DOWN  
9/28/2009 DOWN  
9/25/2009 DOWN  
9/24/2009 DOWN  
9/23/2009 DOWN  
9/22/2009 UP  
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9/18/2009 UP  
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9/14/2009 UP  
9/11/2009 UP  
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9/8/2009 UP  
9/4/2009 UP  
9/3/2009 DOWN  
9/2/2009 DOWN  
9/1/2009 DOWN  
8/31/2009 DOWN  
8/28/2009 UP  
8/27/2009 UP  
8/26/2009 UP  
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8/21/2009 UP  
8/20/2009 UP  
8/19/2009 DOWN  
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8/12/2009 DOWN  
8/11/2009 DOWN  
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8/3/2009 UP  
7/31/2009 DOWN  
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7/16/2009 UP  
7/15/2009 UP  
7/14/2009 UP  
7/13/2009 UP  
7/10/2009 DOWN  
7/9/2009 DOWN  
7/8/2009 UP  
7/7/2009 DOWN  
7/6/2009 DOWN  
7/2/2009 DOWN  
7/1/2009 UP